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中国铁合金网讯：美国各大银行的经济学家表示，美国国内生产总值（GDP）在今年大幅收缩后，要到2022年才能达到疫情以前的水平。
美国花旗银行（Citi）董事总经理凯瑟琳•曼恩（Catherine Mann）今天代表美国银行家协会美国银行首席经济学家经济咨询委员会发表了一份展望报告，她说：“到2020年底，我们仍无法从第二季度的深度下滑中复苏。”。
该委员会预计，美国经济今年将下降5.7%，明年将增长4.5%。该委员会预计，美国GDP最快将于2022年第二季度恢复到2020年前的水平。预计年底失业率将在10%左右，而第二季度预计为16%。
曼恩说：“我们看到的GDP已经够糟糕了，但消费和投资情况更糟。”消费者信心维持低位，拖累了占美国GDP70%的这类支出。“消费者对工作保障和薪酬不确定，消费支出可能在一段时间内受到限制。”
未来几个月的消费者行为仍不可预测，曼恩想知道的是，“需要多长时间才能让大多数人感到足够安全、逛商店、餐馆和电影院？”
曼恩说，预计企业投资也将复苏缓慢，并指出“企业将处于‘观望’模式，拖累消费者。
经济学家委员会预计，尽管消费者支出有望开始复苏，但企业投资在第三季度仍将继续下降，这有助于推动GDP在这三个月内进入正增长区间。
内容来源：翻译自Argusmedia
原文内容：US economic recovery expected to take 2 years
US gross domestic product (GDP) will not reach its pre-pandemic levels until well into 2022 following a sharp contraction this year, economists with major US banks said.
"At the end of 2020, we still will have not recovered from the depth of the second quarter decline," US bank Citi managing director Catherine Mann said, presenting an outlook on behalf of the American Bankers Association's economic advisory committee of chief economists at US banks.
The committee expects the US economy to decline by 5.7pc this year, followed by a 4.5pc increase next year. The committee expects US GDP to recover to pre-2020 levels no sooner than the second quarter of 2022. The unemployment rate is projected to be around 10pc at the end of the year, from a projected second quarter high of 16pc.
"What we see on GDP is bad enough, but the situation for consumption and investment is worse," Mann said. Consumer confidence remains slow, dragging spending in the category that accounts for 70pc of US GDP. "Consumer spending may be constrained for some time, with consumers unsure about job security and pay."
And consumer behavior during coming months remains unpredictable: "How long will it take before most people feel safe enough to visit stores, restaurants and movie theaters?" Mann wondered.
Business investment is also expected to recover slowly, Mann said, noting that "businesses will be in a ‘wait and see' mode, trailing the consumer."
The economists' committee expects business investment to continue declining in the third quarter even though consumer spending is expected to begin to recover, helping to push GDP growth into positive territory in that three-month period.
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