Continued supply tightness of ferrous scrap and higher overseas demand for Turkish rebar has limited the immediate-term downside for Turkish imported scrap prices despite a fall in local rebar demand in Turkey this week.
Tight seaborne scrap availability caused by a collapse in flows across exporting regions under Covid-19 lockdown measures was exacerbated further over the past week by increased demand from buyers outside Turkey.
Five deep-sea deals have been confirmed concluded in the past week by exporters into other markets, mainly into Europe. All business was concluded at around the equivalent of $255/t cfr Turkey for premium HMS 1/2 80:20.
The easing of lockdown measures in some steelmaking countries caused scrap demand from domestic steel mills to increase in those geographies. These consumers have had to import scrap because flows into their domestic supplies remain weak.
This demand from other markets has limited supply to Turkey for May shipment.
And Turkish mills said today that they expect to soon make new rebar sales to customers in Europe and the Middle East for June shipment as those markets begin to re-open. Import prices in some of those markets are calculated lower than domestic, which will make Turkish steel competitive.
A rise in Chinese domestic rebar prices today — supported by the announcement of a 15 billion yuan ($2.2bn) infrastructure stimulus for the Shanghai region — could also be a precursor to higher near term pricing and demand in the southeast Asian rebar market, which would further boost Turkish steel export opportunities.
These supporting factors for the scrap price were balanced out this week by a fall in domestic demand for steel in Turkey that has negatively impacted steelmakers' demand for scrap.
And the rise in scrap demand from ex-Turkey markets was partially offset by the fact that three of the most recent Turkish deep-sea purchases were to build stock rather than serve specific rebar orders, which means Turkish steelmakers do not have urgent requirements for new scrap cargoes. Several Turkish steelmakers have already started looking at June shipment scrap purchases.
One final balancing factor is that the arrival of overseas demand for Turkish rebar was stalled this week by the dramatic fall in US oil futures on 20 April, which deterred many buyers with June shipment rebar requirements from placing new bids.(Argus Media)
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