[ferro-alloys.com]China's domestic cold-rolled coil prices have slumped 19% since the start of 2020 due to the coronavirus impact on global appliance and auto demand and are expected to remain subdued for the remainder of the second quarter and probably into Q3, market participants said this week.

China's output of cold-rolled sheet, a major CRC product, fell 12% year on year to 7.22 million mt in Q1, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. However, end-user production fell by a greater extent over the same period, with home appliance production falling 22% on year and passenger car output plunging 49% on year.

As a result, Chinese domestic CRC prices in the Shanghai spot market had fallen Yuan 3,635/mt ($513/mt) on April 21 from the start of 2020, according to S&P Global Platts assessments.

Moreover, the spread between CRC and hot-rolled coil had narrowed to Yuan 345/mt on April 21, indicating margins for CRC were negative as the cost of turning HRC into CRC is around Yuan 400-500/mt.

The outlook for the CRC market remains weak as demand from the home appliance and auto sectors seems unlikely improve markedly in the near term. Overseas sales account for a large portion of Chinese home appliance makers' revenue, with some major manufacturers generating more than 40% of their revenue from exports, market sources said.

However, global demand for home appliances might stay depressed for much of 2020 as pandemic lockdowns hit household incomes, and may not recover fully until there is a vaccine, the sources said.

China's passenger car sector is mainly domestic demand-driven, which in theory can be boosted by the Chinese government's monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. However, the sector has been grappling with overcapacity since 2018 and most Chinese citizens who can afford a car already have one.

The country's passenger car retail sales were down 7% on year over April 1-19, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

In addition to depressed demand, China's CRC market is also facing challenges in 2020 from hot strip mills employing endless strip production, or ESP, technology. These hot strip mills are capable of producing HRC down to 0.7-0.8 mm thick that will replace some of the traditional CRC products.

China will commission at least four new ESP hot strip mills in 2020 with combined production capacity of around 9 million mt/year, following the commissioning of two ESP mills in 2019 of 3.3 million mt/year capacity, according to Platts estimates.

(S&P Global Platts)

• [Editor:王可]