The spread between rebar spot and futures prices is expected to remain large in the near term because the US spatting with trade partners depresses futures.

Successive environmental probes from the end of May also accounted for the widening gap as rebar spot prices were pushed up on suspensions and production cuts. The average price spread over the past three years stood at 250 yuan/mt.    

However in the medium term, we expect the price spread to gradually return to a normal level as spot prices are set to dip faster than futures with pressure from the supply side.

Rebar supply is set to increase as steel mills across several provinces are scheduled to resume production in July because environmental impact eases.  

• [Editor:Wang Linyan]