[ferro-alloys.com] Staple commodity prices as the barometer, divergence emerged and happened the same with the view on the world economic slowdown forecasted by IMF.

Recently, wallstreetcn reported that prices of staple commodity like petroleum and copper continued to rise, however, there was economist founded that prices of commodity like leather and rubber, which are not usually listed on exchanges, were falling. This rare divergence could be a premonition to a global recession.

Although recession sign was not obvious currently, but lakshman Achuthan, economic forecaster and the founder of Economic Cycle Research Institute showed that non-exchange commodities like leather and rubber always have the highest priority in sensing global warming and cold. These commodities are very sensitive and volatile, but are clear in the direction. The extraordinary divergence in commodity markets is covering up signs of the slowdown of world economy.  

World Bank showed in the Global Economic Outlook: Reverse The Trend? at the beginning of the June, the global economic growth reached at 3.1% in 2017 and 2018. Because mature recovery of export economy of central bank and staple commodities, growth of global economy will decelerate in the following two years, would be 3% and 2.9% respectively. Development of global economy will slow down.

If the World Bank's forecasts come true, we must be well prepared for the global recession.

• [Editor:Wang Linyan]