The International Lead and Zinc Study Group didn’t hold out much hope for a recovery of either metal in 2013. While less than earlier thought, the lead surplus still will grow by 42,000 mt, ILZSG said. The ILZSG anticipates that global lead usage will rise by 4.8% to 11.09-million mt in 2013. An expected increase in China of 6.7% will be driven primarily by further rise in automotive and e-bike production as well as the ongoing development of the mobile phone network.

 

After declining in 2011 and 2012, European demand is forecast rise by 1.9%. In the US, further growth of 1.2% is anticipated. Usage is also predicted to rise in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Thailand and Turkey.

 

A forecast 4.8% rise in global refined lead metal production to 11.13-million mt will be influenced primarily by an expected rise of 6.2% in China. Output in Europe will be boosted by the recent restart of operations at Glencore’s Kivcet plant at Porto Vesme in Sardinia, Italy. The reactivation of old capacity is also planned at the state-owned Karachipampa plant in Bolivia although it is not yet clear how soon this will be implemented.

 

In Australia, production is expected to recover at Nyrstar’s Port Pirie plant after operating problems negatively affected output last year. Output is also expected to be higher in Kazakhstan, Korea, Mexico and the US.

 

Global lead mine output is forecast to increase by 3.5% to 5.43-million mt in 2013. As, according to official figures, the Chinese market is now well supplied, growth in output in 2013 is expected to slow to 4.7%. In Australia, production will benefit from the recent reopening of Ivernia’s 85,000-mtpy Paroo Station (formerly Magellan) mine.

 

The situation for zinc is even moredim, with the ILZSG predicting a 273,000 mt increase in stocks. After falling by 3.3% in 2012, global demand for refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 5.2% to 12.98-million mt in 2013. Anticipated growth of 6.8% in China will be primarily influenced by infrastructure investment in central and western provinces and further growth in demand in the automotive, machinery and white goods sectors. Elsewhere in Asia, demand is forecast to increase in India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey.

 

Continued economic difficulties are expected to restrict growth in Europe to 1.7%. In the US, where there are signs of an upturn in construction activity, demand is forecast to rise by 2.9%.

 

In 2013, an overall forecast rise in refined zinc metal production of 5.2% to 13.25-million mt will be driven primarily by an expected 9.7% increase in China. In Europe, the restart of the Porto Vesme refinery in Italy will be the primary influence behind a rise of 1.9%. Output is also expected to be higher in Australia, Brazil, India, Japan, Korea and Peru.

ILZSG anticipates that world zinc mine production will rise by 2.3% to 13.92-million mt.

 

As in the case of lead, official data indicates that supplies of zinc concentrates in China are more than sufficient to meet current needs. Mine production in the country is, therefore, forecast to increase by a comparatively limited 4.7% this year.

 

Output in Africa will be positively influenced by the opening of Glencore and Blackthorn Resources’ Perkoa operation in Burkina Faso. Similarly the commissioning of the Kayar and Valardena mines will contribute to rises in India and Mexico respectively. Canadian output is forecast to fall by a significant 28% mainly as a consequence of the closure due to reserve depletion of Xstrata’s Brunswick and Perseverance operations.