[Ferro-Alloys.com] ERAMET: Manganese Ore Performance in 2026 Half Year Results

Key figures by activity

Manganese

EBITDA for the Manganese activity was €209m, up +6% from H1 2025:

Ore: €170m (-3%); excluding the impact of an adjusted value of manganese ore inventories, EBITDA up +15%, driven by an increase in volumes sold (+4%) and in the realised selling price (+14%);

Alloys: €39m (+77%), driven by rising volumes sold (+9%), productivity gains and cost savings

Operations

•Ore

In Gabon, production at the Moanda mine declined by 11% to 3.2 Mt, owing to some equipment availability issues in the first half. Conversely, Setrag’s excellent operational performance enabled the transportation of 3.2 Mt of ore over the half year (+6%). The trend observed in Q1, both for flows from Comilog and for other users of the railway, was confirmed in Q2, resulting in a 9% increase in overall transport capacity over the half year. This performance was supported by progress in the works to upgrade the Transgabonese railway: 34 km of sleepers (+38% vs. H1 2025) and 34 km of track (x3 vs. H1 2025) were replaced.

External volumes sold amounted to 2.8 Mt (+4%), with a realised selling price up by 14%, outper-forming the CIF China 44% reference index, thanks to an improved product mix and a favourable geographic mix (increased share of sales generated outside China).

FOB cash cost1 for the manganese ore activity was $2.4/dmtu in H1 (+5%), driven by an unfavour-able currency effect. Mining taxes and royalties stood at $0.3/dmtu (+9%). Sea transport costs per tonne were significantly up to $0.9/dmtu (+18%), linked to the increase in freight and fuel rates.

A value adjustment of -€32m on manganese ore inventories was booked for the first half following a reassessment of their pace of destocking.

•Alloys

Manganese alloys production stood at 359 kt in H1 2026, up 11%, and driven by the activity’s solid operational performance, notably the ramp-up in the Dunkirk smelter. Manganese alloys sales were also up +9% to 337 kt, with a more favourable product mix (52% of refined alloys).

Conversely, the deterioration in the geographical mix (due to weak demand in Europe) and declining prices in the United States (-15%) weighed heavily on average selling prices, while the cost of key consumed inputs decreased over the first half.

Outlook

In H2, demand for manganese ore should moderately increase, bolstered by an improvement in global carbon steel and manganese alloys production (slower decline in China, offset by an increase for the rest of the world, particularly in India where Eramet has a strong business footprint). Ore supply is expected to remain higher, driven by continued strong production in South Africa and nor-malised production levels in Australia.

The market consensus for high grade manganese ore (CIF China 44%) is currently set around $5.2/dmtu10 on average for H2 2026, a level that appears high with respect to the current price index.

•Ore

The target for transported ore volumes is confirmed between 6.4 Mt and 6.8 Mt in 2026, as is FOB cash cost1 guidance between $2.4 and $2.6/dmtu.

Development capex, intended to improve the Gabonese supply chain, is still estimated at around €70m for 2026. Most of this capex is included in the Programme for the Modernisation and Secu-rity (“PMS”) of the Transgabonese railway by 2031. This programme aims to improve the relia-bility of the rail network and significantly increase overall transportation capacity, by notably increas-ing Comilog’s capacity to the level of the mine’s production capacity. Private investment initiated under this programme will be partly financed by the €225m IFC-Proparco loan, which was an-nounced in July with the remainder self-funded by Setrag. This new financing is in addition to the public funding allocated by the AFD and EU to the Gabonese State to complete its section of the PMS works.

In addition, on 20 July, Eramet and the Gabonese Republic signed a Memorandum of Understand-ing to sustainably transform the manganese value chain in Gabon. In particular, this agreement develops a joint industrial roadmap, with three scenarios under review to process up to 700 kt of ore a year by end-2031. It also establishes a structured framework for monitoring and verifying the con-ditions needed to ensure the economic viability of projects and their implementation before any in-vestment decision is made. Access to competitive energy is in particular a prerequisite that the Gab-onese Republic commits to ensuring. Eramet will assess the profitability of projects independently, so as to implement only viable industrial options.

•Alloys

Manganese alloys sales are expected to increase over the year, albeit with an increase in input costs in H2, factoring in the delayed impact of rising manganese ore and reductant prices in Q2 (lag of around 3 months between the purchasing and consumption dates).

?Outlook

The price consensus and exchange rate for H2 2026 currently stand at:

•c.$5.2/dmtu (i.e. c.$5.2/dmtu for FY 2026) on average for manganese ore,

As a reminder, in early January, the Group had exceptionally set up a hedge on its EUR/USD expo-sure. The latter concerns around half of its annual exposure at end-June, with a rate of 1.20.

In Europe, refined manganese alloys selling prices are expected to trend positively in H2 2026, sup-ported by the impact of the CBAM, while those for standard alloys are set to continue facing higher volatility, in connection with the exemption of many countries from the ferroalloy safeguard measures. In the United States, and despite robust demand, prices are expected to remain pres-sured, owing to Indian imports.

Sensitivities of adjusted EBITDA6 to the price of metals and fuel, as well as the exchange rate are presented in Appendix 6.

In H2 2026, sea freight rates should remain high, in a highly volatile environment linked to tensions along global maritime trade routes.

Energy and reductant costs should remain at a high level throughout the year, against a background of high volatility, given the continued uncertainty around the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. However, alloy production sites, which are highly electricity-intensive, benefit from partial electricity cost hedging.

Guidance 2026 targets

Quarterly turnover

Productions and shipments

Market trends and prices

Manganese

Global carbon steel production was 948 Mt in H1 2026 (-1% vs. H1 2025), showing mixed trends: decline in China (-3%) and Europe (-2%), growth in India (+7%) and North America (+5%).

Manganese ore supply (+8% at 10.6 Mt-Mn) exceeded demand (+3% at 10.2 Mt-Mn, driven by demand linked to global manganese alloys production, notably in China.), resulting in a slight sur-plus.

In supply terms, South Africa maintained a record level (+8%, accounting for around 50% of sea-borne production) and Gabon rose (+7%), while Australia normalised but still significantly up on H1 2025 (x3).

Chinese port ore inventories reached 5.7 Mt at end-June, equivalent to 11 weeks of consumption.

Despite this surplus, the CRU for manganese ore CIF China 44% price index rose by 13% on average to $5.2/dmtu, bolstered by slight preventive restocking by steel producers in response to disrupted supply chains with the Middle Eastern conflict, and mounting pressure on freight costs over the half year.

In Europe, in H1 2026, manganese alloys prices benefitted from the implementation of the CBAM (refined alloys, +7%) and EU safeguard measures22 (standard alloys, +5%). In the United States, competitive pressure from Indian imports weighed heavily on prices, particularly on refined alloys (-21%).

• [Editor:tianyawei]