On March 1 local time, affected by the continued escalation of the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices surged sharply. Brent crude opened that day with an increase of nearly 13%, rising to around $82 per barrel. WTI crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to $75.33 per barrel after the opening and had slightly retreated by the time of reporting, at $72.78 per barrel, an increase of 8.59%. Analysts pointed out that this round of price rises, combined with the cumulative increase earlier this year due to escalating tensions, resulted in a year-to-date rise of about 17% in oil prices.

 

Multiple oil tankers attacked in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

 

Due to rising geopolitical risks and soaring energy prices, U.S. stock futures fell simultaneously. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell more than 500 points, indicating a clear decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.3%, and gold prices soared sharply to $5,350 per ounce, showing a clear flow of funds into safe-haven assets.

 

On the evening of February 28, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced a ban on any vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. On March 1, an oil tanker attempting to pass through the strait was struck and began sinking.

 

In Announcement No. 8 released by the IRGC on the evening of the 1st, Iran claimed that three American and British oil tankers violating regulations in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz were attacked by missiles. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard warned that if Iran's oil and gas facilities were attacked, the oil and gas facilities of all countries in the region would be destroyed.

 

Since one-fifth of global maritime oil transport passes through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts believe that a blockade of the strait would have a huge impact on the international energy market, with international oil prices expected to rise sharply in the short term.

 

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world’s crude oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas transport, and its obstruction directly impacts the supply-demand balance in the oil shipping market:

 

Short-term freight rates skyrocketing: Transport halt has caused structural shortages, and some shipowners have even started 'grabbing ships' to hoard capacity.

Structural imbalance in transport capacity: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipeline alternatives but can transport only about 4 million barrels of crude oil per day, just 20% of the strait's transport volume.

Increased LNG transport risks: As a core channel of global LNG trade, blockage of the strait has caused European natural gas futures prices to surge by 130%. Since LNG vessels cannot be replaced by pipelines, Asian buyers have begun bidding at a premium for spot resources on Atlantic routes.

 

Container transport: Route interruption and port congestion chain reaction

Middle Eastern routes are an important part of the global container network, and obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a chain reaction:

 

Complete route halt: Shipping giants such as Mediterranean Shipping Company and Maersk have suspended all bookings for Middle Eastern routes, and already loaded containers are forced to return or be redirected to transshipment ports. Jebel Ali Port, the largest container hub in the Middle East, has suspended operations, resulting in a loss of over 40% of regional transshipment capacity.

 

Soaring rerouting costs: Some shipping companies are choosing to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the one-way voyage by 3,500 nautical miles (about 10 days of sailing), with the transportation cost per container expected to rise by 800-1,200 USD. The harsh sea conditions at the Cape of Good Hope also raise the risk of vessel wear and cargo damage. Global supply chain disruption: Chemical products, building materials, agricultural products, and other goods produced in the Middle East cannot be shipped normally, leading to raw material shortages in European manufacturing. At the same time, Asian export goods are forced to reroute, causing initial signs of congestion at key hub ports in Singapore, the Suez Canal, and other locations.