【Ferro-alloys.com】：Australia’s mining industry could be on the cusp of another upswing, with 2026 shaping up as a potentially pivotal year for the sector.

Two decades ago, Australia experienced a mining boom driven by soaring global demand – particularly from China – for iron ore and coal. That cycle delivered record prices and export volumes before fading in the early 2010s, as the global financial crisis undermined confidence and China’s rapid growth began to plateau.

In recent years, momentum has been building again, underpinned by the clean energy transition, decarbonisation efforts and record gold prices. The question now facing the industry is whether 2026 marks the early phase of a new resources boom.

Major miners are positioning themselves accordingly. BHP and Rio Tinto are expected to maintain strong iron ore output while accelerating growth in copper and lithium, reflecting rising demand from electrification and clean energy technologies. Both companies are also continuing to refine their portfolios, focusing capital on long-life, world-class assets.

Pilbara operations will remain central to production, supported by ongoing investment in automation and low-emissions technologies. These advances are expected to improve productivity, reduce emissions and enhance long-term competitiveness, with execution speed and capital discipline likely to determine success.

In Western Australia’s Pilbara, BHP is progressing major iron ore expansions, including a US$2 billion investment aimed at lifting infrastructure and throughput capacity to maintain competitive production volumes.

At the same time, BHP’s increasing exposure to copper signals a strategic shift beyond traditional bulk commodities, aligning the company with long-term demand linked to electrification and clean energy.

Rio Tinto is also advancing its Pilbara growth pipeline, with the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project emerging as a key option. A $294 million feasibility study approved in December 2025 will assess an initial 40–50 million tonnes per annum operation, leveraging existing rail, port and power infrastructure.

The project is expected to underpin Rio’s Pilbara production through the next decade and has reinforced investor confidence in the company’s long-term strategy.

BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are all trialling electric haul trucks, battery-electric locomotives and other low-emissions technologies, as miners accelerate efforts to decarbonise operations while improving efficiency.

Despite this optimism, the outlook remains closely tied to global economic conditions.

Stabilising global markets are emerging as a key tailwind for Australian mining in 2026, with critical minerals, copper and gold expected to remain at the centre of price growth, investment and policy focus.

BMI forecasts easing trade tensions and reduced tariff uncertainty will support modest price gains across minerals and metals in the year ahead. This outlook is underpinned by robust demand associated with the global energy transition and Western nations’ push to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Critical minerals – including copper, lithium and rare earths – are expected to benefit most, supported by industrial policy as governments pursue supply chain security through domestic investment and strategic partnerships offshore.

Gold is also forecast to average higher in 2026 than in 2025, despite expectations of some price softening later in the year as global monetary easing slows.

The World Gold Council has pointed to ongoing geopolitical risk, sustained central bank demand and a softer US dollar as key pillars supporting the gold price.

Industry consolidation is expected to remain a defining feature of the mining landscape. BMI anticipates merger and acquisition activity seen in 2025 will continue, particularly in critical minerals, as companies seek scale, asset quality and reduced risk exposure.

Geopolitics remains a wildcard. As Western economies seek to diversify away from Chinese-dominated supply chains, increased pushback from Beijing is expected, alongside deeper Chinese engagement with resource-rich regions.

Frontier markets, including parts of Africa, are attracting growing interest as governments assert greater control over mineral development. High-profile projects such as Simandou in Guinea highlight the strategic importance of these regions to global supply.

Trade agreements will also shape the outlook, including initiatives such as the Critical Minerals Framework signed between Australia and the United States.

While it may be too early to declare a full-scale mining boom, the indicators suggest 2026 could be a defining year for the sector – driven by critical minerals, copper and gold, rather than traditional bulk commodities alone.

• [Editor:Alakay]