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【Ferro-alloys.com】: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at RMB 2,937 per tonne, with a high of RMB 2,957 per tonne, a low of RMB 2,921 per tonne, and closed at RMB 2,950 per tonne, up RMB 14 per tonne, or 0.47 per cent, with an open interest of 201,000 lots.

Short-term pressure on alumina remains unchanged, with overseas capacity expansion and domestic inventory reduction drawing attention

Ore side: As of March 31, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at USD 93.1 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was USD 91 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was USD 87 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was USD 81 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day.

Industry news:

According to SMM, starting from April 1, a large alumina refinery in Shandong adjusted the purchase price of 32 per cent ion-exchange membrane liquid caustic soda, lowering it by RMB 15 per tonne from the base price of RMB 810 per tonne. The ex-factory price under the two-ticket system is RMB 795 per tonne (converted to 100 per cent concentration, approximately RMB 2,484 per tonne).

It is reported that PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum), a state-owned aluminium producer in Indonesia, plans to start the second phase of construction of the Mempawah metallurgical-grade alumina refinery (SGAR) in West Kalimantan in 2025. Currently, the company expects to complete the feasibility study and final investment decision (FID) within 2024, as the basis for subsequent engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) work. Inalum and the state-owned miner PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) have completed the first phase of the project, which is expected to achieve full production by the end of Q1 2025, with an annual capacity of 1 million tonnes. After the completion of the second phase, the total capacity will double to 2 million tonnes per year.

On March 26, the SPIC Guinea Alumina Development Project (Phase II) alumina project was fully launched at 11:00 local time in Guinea (19:00 Beijing time). The project includes bauxite mining in the northern mining area, a 1.2 million tonnes per annum alumina plant, and its supporting facilities.

On March 26, the finished product construction and installation project of the Guangxi Fangchenggang Port Ecological Aluminum Industry Chain Project, undertaken by Minmetals 23rd Metallurgical Construction Co., Ltd., officially commenced. The project plans to build two 1.2 million tonnes per annum alumina production lines, with a supporting red mud comprehensive utilisation system, using the low-temperature, low-alkali concentration Bayer process. As a key project of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, upon completion, it will form a complete industry chain of "overseas ore sources - alumina - aluminium-based new materials," which is of significant strategic importance for optimising China's aluminium industry layout and improving the level of bulk solid waste resource utilisation.

Basis report: According to SMM data, as of March 31, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of RMB 146 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warrant report: As of March 31, the total registered volume of alumina warrants increased by 601 tonnes to 299,100 tonnes compared to the previous trading day. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in Shandong remained flat at 4,513 tonnes, in Henan at 25,800 tonnes, in Guangxi at 49,800 tonnes, in Gansu at 22,500 tonnes, and in Xinjiang increased by 601 tonnes to 196,400 tonnes.

Overseas market: As of March 31, 2025, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was USD 377 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 21.40 per tonne, and the USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately RMB 3,092 per tonne, which is RMB 258 per tonne higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed. Based on the latest FOB transaction price of USD 368 per tonne in Eastern Australia, the domestic mainstream port selling price is around RMB 3,300 per tonne, only less than RMB 200 per tonne higher than the SMM alumina price index. If overseas alumina prices further decrease and the rate of decrease exceeds that of domestic prices, the alumina import window may gradually open. On the export side, based on the latest spot transaction price of alumina in Shandong, the domestic alumina export cost is around USD 450 per tonne, higher than the overseas spot alumina price, keeping the export window closed.

• [Editor:Alakay]