[Ferro-Alloys.com]Global iron ore production growth will accelerate in the coming years, bringing an end to the stagnation that has persisted since iron ore prices hit a decade-low average of $55 a tonne in 2015, market analyst Fitch Solutions asserts in its latest industry report.

 

Continued, albeit slower, growth in Australia, faster growth in Brazil and stabilisation in Mainland China’s ore output will be the main drivers of growth, Fitch says. China will invest heavily in overseas mines to improve security of iron ore import supply, and Guinea will be an important beneficiary of this trend via the Simandou project.  

 

Fitch forecasts global mine output growth to average 2.7% over 2022-2026 compared to -1.3% over the previous five years. This would lift annual production by 361.7mn tonnes in 2026 compared to 2022 levels, roughly the equivalent of Russia, India, and South Africa’s combined 2022 output.

 

Supply growth will be primarily driven by Brazil and Australia, while Brazilian miner Vale has aggressive expansion plans, Fitch notes, adding that miners in Australia including BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue will reinvest currently buoyant profits into additional production.

 

In Mainland China, iron ore production will rise once again in the next three to four years as the country works to increase its self-sufficiency and reduce Australian imports, having declined significantly over recent years, the analyst predicts.

 

Australia

Fitch forecasts iron ore production in Australia to grow at an annual average of just 0.4% over 2022-2026. The significant slowdown compared to the previous five years comes from the launch of the limited new sources of supply from new projects available. This would lift annual output by just 19.3 million tonnes compared in 2026 compared to 2022 levels.

 

The analyst believes Australia’s seating at the lowest-end of the global iron ore cost curve will provide a healthy buffer against falling prices in the coming years despite the slowdown. On average, the cost of producing iron ore in Australia is $30/ tonne, compared with $40-50/tonne in West Africa and $90/tonne in China, the analyst notes.

 

Brazil

Brazil’s iron ore production growth will rebound in the coming years following contraction and stagnation over 2018-2020, Fitch predicts, noting that low operating costs, a solid project pipeline and Brazil’s high-quality iron ore increasingly favoured by Chinese steel producers will all contribute to higher output. Fitch forecast Brazil’s iron ore production to increase at annual average rate of 2.6% from 2022-2026 from 409.6mnt this year to 473.5mnt in 2026.