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  A ship almost as high as the Shimao tower in the United States, is across the world's most prosperous canal.

  On March 23, the super large container ship "Changshi" operated by China Taiwan Changrong group was stuck on the Suez Canal on the way from Yantian, Shenzhen, China to Rotterdam, the Netherlands, according to several media reports.

  "Changshi" is about 400m long, 59 meters wide and 220000 tons. It is registered in Panama and is the largest ship currently operated.

  It is also reported that the long grant moved 17 meters north on March 27, local time. That night, a dozen tugs, while in the high tide, continued to work hard to help the ship get out of the trap by removing sediment around the long grant. However, the rescue party later admitted that the operation failed because the cargo ship failed to regain freedom during the high tide.

  The latest news shows that the bow of the ship is damaged and the river has poured into two tanks. After the long grant is shallow, it will assess whether the cargo ship can leave the Suez Canal. Now there's no evidence that cargo ships can't leave the canal.

  On March 27, 2021, the captain of the container stranded at night gave the lights to light the Suez Canal in Egypt. Changci, one of the largest container ships in the world, ran aground in the Suez Canal on March 23. The time to get out of the predicament is still uncertain.

  "Ship jam" of Suez Canal, affected along the Eurasian continent

  Wuminghua, a senior shipping analyst in Shanghai, told reporters that among the three major container liner routes in the world, Asia Europe route is called the world's largest "profit line", and the Suez Canal is the only way to go through the route. Thus, it can be seen that the freight volume of Suez Canal is "so many countries in Europe have trade with China. The blockage of Suez Canal will bring about the Asian European mainland along the coast All countries on the line have an impact. ".

  Zhuo Chuang information analysts pointed out that the geographical location of the Suez Canal is extremely important. As the first throat canal, the suetu canal greatly shortened the eastern and Western voyage. Compared with the round the Cape of good hope in Africa, the distance from the countries along the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean is 5500-800 km; from Mediterranean countries to the Indian Ocean is 80000000 km shorter, which is an important strategic waterway in international shipping and a shortcut for oil and sea transportation export to Europe in the middle East.

  Wu told shell finance and economics reporters that the main route of Suez Canal is container ships, mainly transporting consumer goods, industrial goods and photovoltaic, while large coal, iron ore and other commodities and food, oil and liquefied gas cannot be packed. Therefore, the canal is blocked and the most affected is industrial goods and consumer goods.

  "If the blockage continues, the order of the route will also be greatly damaged. Because the cargo ships cannot transport the goods in time, the goods are in breach of contract, the supply chain is interrupted, the ships will face fines, and the enterprises without receiving the goods will not be able to pay back the payment, and will also affect the subsequent production and turnover." Wu said.

  In the longer term, many ships are considering bypassing Singapore and Cape of hope to ensure that the ship can deliver on time during the delivery period. However, the cost of fuel consumption will be increased. In addition, the company will change to land transportation and the cost will increase. It can be said that in order to avoid fines, many companies have to face increased costs and diluted profits. "Affected by the transmission effect, the freight rate will increase correspondingly, and the burden of foreign trade enterprises will be further increased.".

  In addition, Liu Xinwei, a macro researcher at Zhuo Chuang consulting, also pointed out that the canal jam would make the already tense market of transportation worse.

  He said that since the beginning of the fourth quarter last year, the activity of international bulk trade has increased significantly. At present, the global container shipping industry is in a tense period. As an important waterway, the suspension of the Suez Canal will have a certain adverse impact on container transportation, and "ship blocking" may make the transportation capacity more tense.

  Short term oil price

  The long grant blocked the Suez Canal, which has affected oil prices to some extent.

  Suez Canal is an important strategic waterway in international shipping, and also a shortcut for oil and sea transportation export to Europe in the Middle East.

  BP's 2020 energy statistics yearbook shows that in 2019, the crude oil from the Middle East to Europe was 137 million tons, accounting for 26 percent of the total European imports. Although the canal oil flow has decreased with the weakening of European oil demand, it is still a key channel for the Middle East to transport crude oil and oil to Europe.

  According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the crude oil price has been rising since November 2020, with a huge increase. Since March 12, the international crude oil price has entered a phase back, and the WTI crude oil price has been down from the high of $66 / barrel to USD 58 / barrel on March 23.

  However, after the Suez Canal was blocked, international oil prices rose nearly 6 per cent on March 24, and WTI crude oil prices were $60 per barrel, the biggest increase in more than four months.

  However, the market has a lot of voices that oil prices will not continue to rise.

  Liu pointed out that the current economy continues to develop well, demand recovery is obviously faster than supply, and the market is in a highly sensitive period. Although the event will not last for a long time, it will also have a certain impact on the already tense supply. People don't need to pay much attention to the impact of the event, which is just an emergency in the process of commodity rise. The problem of three European epidemics is superimposed. The final impact of this event on market market may be relatively limited.

  In terms of oil prices, analysts also pointed out that the Suez Canal was blocked, but short-term supply side emergencies, which only affected the crude oil supply expectations, and could not change the global supply and demand pattern of crude oil market.

  According to Zhuo Chuang information, from the time when the Suez Canal is restored to navigation, if the tide water rises on Sunday or next week, the long grant is rescued successfully. Because the supply and demand side of crude oil is not affected, the market is likely to continue to return to the oil price callback due to concerns about crude oil demand. It is expected that the space for the oil price rise caused by the blocked event of Suez Canal is limited, and can only be prevented in the short term Oil prices fell further.

• [Editor:Catherine Ren]