[ferro-alloys.com]Iron ore shipments from major producers Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue Metals Group and Roy Hill, along with exports from South Africa's Saldanha Port, hit a seven-quarter high of 308.2 million mt in the July-September quarter, according to analysis using S&P Global Platts' trade flow software cFlow.

Total September quarter exports were up 3.1% from the previous quarter and up 2% year on year, and took the January-September total to 872.81 million mt, 1.7% higher than in the same period a year earlier, the analysis showed.

By the end of September, Rio Tinto, Vale, Roy Hill and Anglo American Kumba had achieved around 76%, 69%, 72% and 77% of their full year export guidance for 2020, respectively, Platts estimates. Vale was still lagging its guidance despite a big jump of 30.6% on quarter and 1.9% on year in Q3.

However, the Brazilian company's exports are likely to be the highest of the year in Q4, as it reiterated in early October it would meet its 2020 guidance of 310 million-330 million mt.

Annualized export run rates to date in 2020 from BHP and FMG were 295.23 million mt and 172.88 million mt, respectively, which can be seen as ahead of guidance for BHP and on par for FMG. Both miners align with the Australian financial year that runs July-June. BHP is targeting output of 276 million-286 million mt in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2021, and FMG 175 million-180 million mt.

The cFlow data should be used as an indication only and may not capture all vessel movements and volumes.

** Rio Tinto shipped 83.03 million mt from Australia's Port Dampier and Cape Lambert in Q3, down 5% on quarter and 3.5% on year. This took its exports to 245.23 million mt for January-September, accounting for around 76% of the lower end of its guidance of 324 million-334 million mt. The miner is on track to meet its guidance target and is expected to ship 78.8 million mt in Q4.

** BHP's shipments from Australia's Port Hedland totaled 73.51 million mt in Q3, down 5.6% on quarter but up 6% on year. The company's exports over April-June were the highest since 2015. The miner shipped 221.02 million mt of seaborne iron ore over January-September, up 7% on year, cFlow data showed. The miner's 2020 annualized export run rate was 295.23 million mt based on Q1-Q3 shipping volumes, Platts estimates. Its production guidance is 273 million-286 million mt for the 12 months to June 30, 2021.

** Vale has maintained its iron ore fines production guidance of 310 million-330 million mt in 2020. Its seaborne exports from Brazilian ports in Q3 jumped to 80.88 million mt, up 30.6% on quarter and 1.9% higher on year, cFlow data showed. However, its exports over the first three quarters were down 5% on year at 197.07 million mt because of operational issues earlier in the year. In 2019, Vale sold around 25 million mt to Brazilian steelmakers. If Vale's domestic sales in 2020 are at a similar level to last year, it would need to export around 29.3 million mt/month of iron ore over the balance of the year to be in line with its tonnage guidance, Platts estimates.

** FMG's exports in Q3 totaled 42.25 million mt, down 8% on quarter but up 3.5% on year. This took calendar year-to-date exports to 129.42 million m, up 4.6% on year. The company's 2020 annualized export run rate is 172.88 million mt, according to cFlow data. The company's 2020-21 fiscal year guidance is 175 million-180 million mt.

** Roy Hill's shipments totaled 14.04 million mt in Q3 from Port Hedland, down 3.8% on quarter and up 3.6% on year. Over January-September, the miner shipped 39.81 million mt, up 2.8% on year. Roy Hill's Q3 exports were its second-highest, behind Q2, since the company commenced exports in 2015. It is expected to ship 55 million-60 million mt in 2020.

** Iron ore exports from Saldanha Port in South Africa totaled 14.5 million mt in Q3, up 30% on quarter and up 11.7% on year. Anglo American Kumba, Assmang and Sedibeng ship from Saldanha port, with Kumba's volumes accounting for around 72% of the total, Platts understands. Kumba's iron ore exports were estimated at 10.5 million mt in Q3, taking January-September exports to 29.18 million mt. On this basis, Kumba achieved 77% of its 2020 sales guidance of 38 million-40 million mt in the first nine months. This is despite some coronavirus pandemic-related operational impacts earlier in the year.

(S&P Global Platts)

• [Editor:王可]