The overall HRC quota volume is not radically reduced by the move, but some integral exporters – including Turkey – will take a hit.

Turkey can ship 1.36 mn t duty-free into the European Union between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021; 344,890t in the first quarter (July-September), 344,890t in the second quarter, 337,393t in the third quarter, and 341,141t in the last quarter.

In July 2017-June 2018, Turkey sold 2.1mn t into the EU, which increased to 3.31mn int July 2018-June 2019, both substantially above its new quota level. Between July 2019 and March this year, it sold 1.47mn t into the EU – also more than its new quota.

Indian HRC volume will also be reduced. It can sell 667,978t into the July 2020-June 2021 period; 168,367t each over the first quarter and second quarter, 164,707t in the third quarter, and 166,537 in the final April-June 2021 period. In July 2017-June 2018, India sold 967,596t into the EU, and 793,235t in July 2018-June 2019; both above its new quota level.

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