[ferro-alloys.com]Southeast Asian carmakers have cut their projections for 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic stifled demand for automotive steel and parts, causing sales and production to tumble across the region, an analysis by S&P Global Platts showed this week.

Thailand, ASEAN's leading carmaker, foresees vehicle production to either slip 33.8% to 1.33 million units, or in the worst case scenario by 50.2% to 1 million units if the pandemic prolongs, data from the Federation of Thai Industries showed.

The FTI's previous forecasts stood at 2 million units in January and 1.9 million units in March, both lower than the 2.01 million unit made in 2019.

The downward revision came as FTI data showed an 83.6% plunge in April vehicle production to 24,711 units, while local sales slumped 65.0% to 30,109 vehicles from April 2019.

Thailand has been under a state of emergency to fight the COVID-19 pandemic since March 26 that will end June 30.

Similarly, ASEAN's second largest carmaker, Indonesia, cut its sales target for 2020 by nearly half to about 600,000 units from a year ago, data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers, or Gaikindo, showed.

Also, Gaikindo slashed Indonesia's car export projection to 175,000 units in 2020 from an initial target of between 350,000 and 400,000 units.

Like Thailand, Indonesia's vehicle production slumped 80.8% on the month to 21,434 units in April, and 79.5% lower from 104,622 units the year before.

April sales in Indonesia crashed to 7,871 units down 90.6% from 84,029 units the year before and down 89.8% from 76,811 units in March 2020.

Similarly, the Malaysian Automotive Association cut its total industry volume for 2020 to 400,000 units from 607,000 units. In 2019, Malaysia made 571,632 vehicles, up from 564,971 vehicles in 2018.

Should the forecast of 400,000 units turn accurate, it would be the first time in 13 years that Malaysia's TIV would have failed to exceed 500,000 units.

"All automotive operations stopped following the extension of MCO [Movement Control Order] ... as auto sector was not in the high priority sectors," the association said.

The MCO, aimed at limiting the spread of pandemic, was first imposed on March 18 and will expire June 9.

In Vietnam, total vehicle sales hit 10,816 units in April, down 46.3% on the year, data from the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers' Association showed.

With the latest data summed up, January-April sales declined 35% on the year to 60,825 units, which is about 20% of the total sales made in the whole of 2019.

"Ultimately even if one region returns to production, they are still at the mercy of how the others recover too. Vehicle manufacturing is embedded in a web of trades coming from all over the world, to obtain thousands of parts to assemble one vehicle," a steel mill source in Asia said.

"And with the current economy, we suspect consumers will not be spending big money on brand new cars for now, maybe even turning more towards the resale market. Recovery is going to take while."

(S&P Global Platts)

• [Editor:王可]