For many years, the slogan of Alcoa (ticker: AA) – accented with a five-note mini-jingle – was "Alcoa can't wait." But skeptical investors, not exactly known for whistling happy tunes, have grave doubts when it comes to betting on the lightweight metals technology giant. Alcoa stock? It can wait.

Some look at Alcoa's most recent earnings report and see reasons for optimism – its earnings per share of 4 cents doubled Wall Street's expectations. But overall revenue of $5.25 billion fell short of forecasts ($5.29 billion), and experts with a broader lens see signs of trouble.

"We are definitely alarmed by the magnitude drop from fiscal year 2014 earnings of 91 cents a share to 2016's estimated 15 cents," says K.C. Ma, director of the George Investments Institute at Stetson University in DeLand, Florida. He says that last year, Alcoa cited international aluminum price drops as it threatened to shut down smelting operations in Massena, New York, its Intalco facility in Ferndale, Washington and Portland Aluminum in Australia.

Alcoa made headlines in November when it announced the closure of its Massena operation, the oldest operating smelter in the country, along with plans to lay off nearly 500 workers. Gov. Andrew Cuomo called it "an act of war" before brokering a peace: $70 million in discounted power and cash in exchange for a three-and-a-half year reprieve.

While some critics believe Alcoa deliberately tested the waters in Massena to land government subsidies, "the fact remains that, after a long-term structural and systemic decline in the U.S. aluminum industry, this may be the beginning of the end," Ma says.

Alcoa's performance in large part stems from factors beyond its control. "Moody's put AA on watch for a credit downgrade – along with several mining companies – due to the slump in worldwide prices and the prospect that prices will stay low for the foreseeable future," says Robert Barone, co-founder of Universal Value Advisors in Reno, Nevada and a former professor of finance at the University of Nevada. "This stock is not for the faint of heart."

Alcoa's share price began a perilous plummet in November 2014 and has fallen nearly 50 percent. A similar percentage drop holds true going back five years, which can't be comforting to long-term shareholders.

But if "buy low" wisdom holds here, the aluminum company could soon be worth its weight in gold. Six Wall Street analysts don't just advise buying AA stock: They label it a "strong buy." Four recommend a "hold" and one calls for a "sell."

Analysts point out the source of recent investor enthusiasm – Alcoa's planned split into two publicly traded companies. Expected to happen this year, the move would separate Alcoa into a legacy company based on its traditional smelting business, and a bet on the future that focuses on sales of titanium and high-strength aluminum to the aerospace industry – which needs those products to increase fuel efficiency.

That portion of Alcoa "has recently won additional aerospace contracts and are a primary supplier to Boeing (BA) and Airbus," says Steven Gattuso, a Canisius College professor of economics and finance and director of the school's Golden Griffin Fund. "In addition, the increased use of aluminum in cars and trucks, coupled with current high North American new vehicle sales, have also contributed to strength in this segment."

In fact, this portion of Alcoa's balance sheet showed robust performance in the fourth quarter, with aerospace revenue jumping 34 percent from the previous year. Investors might also be reassured that Alcoa chairman and CEO Klaus Kleinfeld will helm the new, unnamed company while remaining chairman of Alcoa through the transition process.

But as with so many things attached to commodities, China plays a major role in how fortunes tilt for American companies. And the bottom line isn't so good for a company like Alcoa, which works both upstream (as in the mining process) and downstream (by producing finished industry products) in the metals supply chain.

As a primary user and producer of aluminum, "Chinese demand has decreased due to less infrastructure spending," Gattuso says. But Chinese companies have continued to fill domestic demand, "contributing to the oversupply of commoditized light metals worldwide and the precipitous decrease in commodity price."

Thus in the short run, "Alcoa is a cyclical company with the stock price moving significantly along with economic prospects," Barone says. "So if you are good at forecasting market sentiment, this may be a place to play."

Or, watching things shake out could be the way to go. Analysis by Ernst & Young on corporate divestitures finds that spinoffs outperform the Standard & Poor's 500 index by 19 percent over the two years following the transaction.

"The realistic expectation should be that, for such a major business model change, it will take time to see the intended effect," Ma says.

And in the meantime, there's always the distinct possibility that light metals will tank and the aerospace sector hits turbulence. No wonder investing in this aluminum company requires nerves of steel.

"For anyone older than 40, it isn't hard to remember U.S. Steel, another U.S. major metal company, which spun off its oil and gas business in 2001," Ma says. "Today, U.S. Steel produces less steel than it did in 1902. Draw your own parallel if you wish."

Meanwhile, Alcoa sits at the crossroads – hoping to avoid that kind of past and forge a bright future.

"Despite a well-positioned balance sheet, good cash flow generation and stable leverage, I recommend a hold on Alcoa," Gattuso says. He adds that investors should also exercise caution "until the uncertainty regarding the company split materializes and the global economic outlook and commodity industrial metal market stabilizes."

• [Editor:tianyawei]