The 3-day Central Economic Work Conference concluded today. As the most important economic decision meeting, it sets the tone and objectives for next year’s economic policies. The official message from the conference – maintaining an appropriately relaxed monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy while increasing flexibility in policy implementation – is consistent with our expectation. But if one takes a closer look at the wordings in the press release, a few more interesting points are worth noting for investors:

First, the conference emphasizes that the government will “keep an appropriate pace of investment growth, focus on completing on-going projects, and strictly control new project starts.” This is stark contrast with the message from last year’s (2008) central economic work conference, which called for a “significant increase in public investment”.

The background of this significant shift in view on investment is the growing recognition within the central government that the massive FAI growth this year (at 33% ytd on a yoy basis) is not sustainable and, in order to contain inflation and overcapacity, some projects which are not yet started should be canceled or delayed. Therefore, the number of new project starts in 2010 will likely be significantly lower than in 2009.

Second, the conference spells out several specific measures to facilitate the structural shift towards a consumption-driven economy. These include:
(a) “Continue the policy support for electronics, auto and motorcycle sales.” This point is largely expected.
(b) “Continue the policy support for first home buyers and those who purchase properties for upgrading purposes. “ This suggests that the government is not ready to take tough measures to cool off the real estate market, before export growth recovers to a comfortable level.
(c) “Relax the hukou (residency) restrictions in small- and medium-sized cities.” This measure bodes well for property demand in second- and third-tier cities, as the relaxation of the hukou system should help accelerate the pace of urbanization in these cities over the medium term.
(d) “Increase subsidies for agriculture and further raise procurement prices for grains.” This is obviously positive for agriculture and rural income and consumption growth.
(e) “Accelerate the health care reform.” This implies that the implementation of the health care reform program has been behind schedule in 2009, and its acceleration next year should benefit companies in the medical equipment and drug distribution sectors going forward.

• [Editor:editor]