BMI – a unit of Fitch Solutions – is maintaining its nickel price forecast for 2024 at $18,000/tonne as excess supply continues to drag prices down from 2022 levels, the analytics firm said in its latest market report.

Global nickel prices may have hit a floor, according to a Macquarie analyst who sees a market recovery driven by strong demand from the steel sector and as a surplus of ore supplies shrinks after Indonesia slowed production permits.

Nickel premiums stayed flat around the world amid quiet trading in the week to Tuesday April 9.

The global nickel market had a surplus of 13,400 metric tons in January, down from a surplus of 23,100 metric tons a year earlier, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed on Thursday.

Nickel prices are proving a headache for miners across the world: oversupply of the metal plus low electric vehicle (EV) demand has created a profit-stealing two-year price slide.

According to Full Year 2023 Production Report released by Glencore, nickel volumes fell 9%, owing to higher third-party production at INO and Murrin Murrin maintenance.

Russian metals producer Nornickel on Monday said it expected a further decline in nickel output this year, hit by adverse geopolitical risks and postponed furnace repairs, following on from a drop in production in 2023.

Research firm BMI has revised downward its nickel price forecast for this year to $20 000/t from $20 600/t as the market remains in a supply glut.